Convergencia Research, Consultoría especializada en Latinoamérica y Caribe
Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Ecuador defines its political future in a polarized scenario

Andrés Arauz and Guillermo Lasso will define in a second round, on April 11, who will be the new president. The uncertainty reaches the polls; although the majority gives a close result in favor of Arauz, however there are some that see Lasso as the winner.

In Ecuador, the presidential elections scheduled for April 11 are approaching and will define the political future of the country. The second round scenario poses a polarization in the Ecuadorian electorate that is preparing to choose two opposing ideological fronts.

On the one hand, Andrés Arauz is a 36-year-old young left-wing economist and candidate of the UNES alliance, supported by former president Rafael Correa; on the other, Guillermo Lasso, 65, a former banker and from the right, represents the CREO-PSC formula.

The tendencies in numbers reflect growth for Lasso, who was further behind in first-round polls. The gap between the candidates were reduced amid a climate of tension that is reflected in the media and also in the last televised presidential debate, on March 21, in which the candidates opted for a strategy of attrition rather than of proposals on how to face the crisis that the country is going through after the four years of Lenín Moreno's government and the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.

Ecuador's numbers show a 10% drop in GDP in 2020, the most vertiginous in the last 93 years, while unemployment is the highest since 2009, with 6.6%, while underemployment reaches 23.4%.

Correa's candidate pointed out that he will not comply with the assistance plan that the country maintains with the IMF and that he will seek legal mechanisms to repatriate deposits that Ecuadorians have abroad. Arauz's plan includes expansive public spending and policies to generate development and facilitate access to productive resources. He also proposes to restrict unfair competition and strengthen mechanisms for the protection of consumers, public banking, and popular and solidarity finance.

On the other hand, the CREO-PSC candidate aims to create jobs to combat unemployment in the country with the launch of a new Labor Opportunities law that promotes the generation of employment in young people by promoting entrepreneurship in a context of globalization. In addition, he proposes a foreign policy of openness to imports, which is not understood as something negative for the country's economy.

Polls related to Arauz give him an advantage of more than 10 points over Lasso in the electoral tiebreaker on April 11, with 55.7% of the valid votes compared to 44.3% for his rival. However, other pollsters authorized by the National Electoral Council show a more adjusted scenario. Click Report gives a minimal advantage to the CREO-PSC candidate, with 51.49% compared to 48.51% for Arauz. And Market predicts that 42% of Ecuadorians will support Correa's candidate, 41% Lasso, 11% will vote null and 5% blank.

Arauz obtained the advantage in the first round with 32.72% of the votes, followed by Lasso with 19.74%. The leftist indigenous leader Yaku Pérez was third at a minimum distance: 19.39%.

Education on stage. One of the most sensitive issues in the campaign for the Presidency in Ecuador has been what each candidate will do with education in the country. Approaches such as the elimination of the entrance exam to higher education, greater access to the Internet and reforms to the school system were some of the offers that both Lasso and Arauz stated.

Through his government plan, Arauz establishes early childhood education as a priority. He also promises to strengthen the Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation system, increase institutes of higher education and include the learning of the ancestral language in the educational curriculum.

Lasso, on his part, proposes reopening 900 rural schools and equipping them with technology and innovative methodologies so that they are on a par with those of the urban area, while promoting free university entry and autonomy for higher education institutes.

 

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