The analysis firm Dell'Oro assured that vendors Samsung, Fujitsu and NEC led sales of Open RAN products in the first three quarters of 2022.

According to Dell'Oro this is linked to the strength of the Asian market in relation to this technology, since together with the U.S. market it accumulates 95% of global sales.

In contrast, Europe's contribution to this market remains insignificant, the analysis firm said. However, Dell'Oro believes that this situation could change in the next two years as operators' existing contracts with suppliers begin to expire.

Dell'Oro estimated that O-RAN could expand to 15-20% of the total telecommunications equipment market by 2027. This is an upward revision of its previous forecasts, which placed O-RAN's footprint at around 15% in 2026.

According to Dell'Oro, the open RAN movement is proceeding at a steady pace especially in the US where it is driven by the decision of operators Dish and Verizon. Also, the U.S. government is pushing the doping of Open RAN standards as it seeks to encourage more U.S.-based providers to emerge as part of its strategic competition with China. The idea behind Open RAN is to open up standards and specifications so that more companies can participate, creating more competition.

TCO impact. Dell'Oro pointed out that since there is no marketing value behind O-RAN, it is the business fundamentals, performance, total cost of ownership (TCO) and future growth prospects that take precedence in the calculations.

In this regard, TCO operates as a limiting factor as an operator must justify the elimination of existing equipment to accelerate this transition, something very difficult to sustain at a time when service revenues are stagnant. The analysis firm considered that, in this scenario, operators will be driven to start considering replacing their equipment when the time comes to order new equipment.