In a complex climate of threats of violence, for not to appear pressure on candidates and restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic, Bolivia will go to presidential elections next Sunday the 18th. It will thus try to recover its transition to normality lost a year ago, back, when allegations of fraud in the elections led to the resignation of Evo Morales as president.
On this occasion, Morales' Movement for Socialism (MAS) will be represented by his former Minister of Economy, Luis Arce, while his main opponent will be former President Carlos Mesa, as candidate of the Citizen Community party.
According to the latest polls, the projection of votes would give Arce between 42% and 43%, while the level for Mesa would be just over 34%. The third would be the candidate of the Creemos alliance, Luis Fernando Camacho, who would reach 17% of the votes.
This balance is unstable given that there is the possibility that there will be no second round because the Bolivian electoral law determines that to proclaim himself president and vice president, a candidate will have to obtain more than 50% of the valid votes cast, or failing that, a minimum of 40% of those votes and a difference of at least 10% on the second most voted candidacy.
Thus, the MAS would be less than two percentage points from winning in the first round, considered the only opportunity to succeed, since all the polls coincide in pointing out that in the case of a second round (scheduled for November 29) the winning candidate would be Carlos Mesa. This small difference necessary to win in the first round, made the MAS focus on capturing the votes of Bolivians abroad, especially in Argentina, which make up 3% of the general register.
This situation has led opponents to a return of Morales to power, to try to lower candidacies in order not to disperse the vote and ensure a second round that is currently presented as a question mark.
A few months ago the current provisional president of the country, Jeannine Añez, declined her candidacy and later so did the candidate of the ADN party, María de la Cruz Bayá. These days, the strong pressures also led former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, representative of the Libre 21 alliance, to decline his application.
However, the question of resignations does not appear easy in Camacho's case, since in recent days the calls for him to lower his candidacy have intensified, but he and his allies have responded negatively. In fact, Camacho knows that he has the "key" of the elections and plays with the possibility of being able to establish conditions in the case of a second round. For now, in his presidential campaign, he never tires of pointing out that Morales and Mesa will negotiate an agreement in the future.
Meanwhile, Bolivia is struggling with few elements in its fight against Covid-19, where it already exceeds 138,500 cases and more than 8,300 deaths and with the need to open its failing economy, supported mainly by micro and small enterprises. To this one must add the various fires unleashed in much of its territory, which represents a discouraging spectacle for new authorities that emerge triumphant in this election. A provisional government in retreat must also be added, which in recent months saw its main initiatives blocked in a Congress dominated by the MAS.